Demand & market overview

Where demand is forming, how customers order, how you stock and distribute against it, and where pricing and product white-space sits - observed read-only across the systems you already run.

What this is. A synthetic preview, read-only on the shared substrate. The demand, stocking, ordering, and distribution views are SCO-domain analytics; the deeper customer, market, pricing, and product-opportunity intelligence extends into the Analytics layer (roadmap). Opportunities are computed signals, not verdicts; projections carry no provenance hash.

87%

Forecast accuracy

+4 pts QoQ

96.4%

Fill rate

target 98%

6.2

Inventory turns

+0.4 YoY

14%

Demand variance

CV of weekly demand

92%

Price realization

-1.5 pts QoQ

94%

On-time-in-full

improving

$3.1M

Excess & obsolete

across 3 plants

$5.4M

White-space (identified)

pricing + product

Demand index & projection synthetic

Trailing 8 quarters, indexed to 100, with a 4-quarter projection and confidence band.

Actual demandProjectionConfidence band

Signals worth attention

$3.1M excess & obsolete concentrated in 2 product families at OSK-03.

$1.9M price leakage from off-policy discounting in the distributor channel.

$3.5M product white-space - unmet demand in an adjacent SKU family.

Synthetic preview. In production, derived read-only from ERP, WMS, demand, and pricing systems with SHA-256-anchored lineage as in SCO.

Customer insights

Who buys, how they buy, and where value and risk concentrate - the demand-side view of the customer base.

214

Active customers

31%

Top-10 concentration

73%

Repeat-order rate

$96K

Avg annual / customer

Customers by value tier synthetic

Buying behaviour by tier

Tier	Order freq.	Avg order	Mix
Strategic (A)	weekly	$28K	broad
Core (B)	bi-weekly	$11K	focused
Transactional (C)	monthly+	$3.4K	narrow
Long-tail (D)	sporadic	$0.9K	single

Top customers by spend

Customer	Annual	Trend
Harbor Freight Co	$2.1M	growing
Granite Parts	$1.6M	declining
Summit Logistics	$1.2M	flat
Vertex Metals	$0.9M	growing
Beacon Supply	$0.8M	growing

Demand share by customer segment

OEM38%

Distributor28%

Direct / enterprise22%

Aftermarket12%

Granite Parts -22% YoY - the largest single demand risk in the base.

Synthetic. Aggregated read-only from ERP sales + order history; concentration and trend are risk lenses, not verdicts.

Distribution

How product reaches demand - network coverage, channel mix, lane performance, and cost-to-serve.

94%

On-time-in-full

3.4 days

Avg lead time

8.1%

Cost-to-serve

% of revenue

3

Distribution centres

Service level by region read-only

Region	Served by	OTIF	Lead time	Cost idx
Midwest	DET-01	97%	2.1 d	0.92
South	STG-02	95%	3.0 d	1.00
West	OSK-03	89%	4.6 d	1.18
Northeast	DET-01 (LTL)	91%	3.8 d	1.09

West region trails on OTIF and cost - a candidate for a forward-stocking location or carrier mix change.

Channel mix (volume)

Distributor44%

Direct / OEM32%

Aftermarket16%

Online / portal8%

Cost-to-serve trend synthetic

% of revenue, trailing 8 quarters.

Synthetic. Combines WMS / TMS / visibility data with order history, read-only.

Ordering patterns

How demand actually arrives - order size, cadence, seasonality, and variability - the inputs that drive stocking and service.

2,410

Orders / quarter

$18.6K

Avg order value

+34%

Quarter-end spike

0.31

Order CV (variability)

Order seasonality (orders / month) synthetic

Trailing 12 months - note the quarter-end and year-end peaks.

Order-size distribution

< $2K31%

$2K - $10K42%

$10K - $50K19%

> $50K8%

Cadence by customer tier

Tier	Inter-order days	Predictability
Strategic (A)	6-8	high
Core (B)	12-16	high
Transactional (C)	30-45	medium
Long-tail (D)	90+	low

Quarter-end ordering spikes of +34% strain fulfilment and inflate expedite cost - a candidate for incentive smoothing.

Synthetic. Reads order history from the ERP read-only; CV = coefficient of variation of weekly order volume.

Stocking levels

Inventory against demand - coverage, safety stock, stockouts, and the excess & obsolete that ties up working capital.

6.2

Inventory turns

58 days

Days of supply

$3.1M

Excess & obsolete

2.1%

Stockout rate

Inventory health by category read-only

Category	On hand	Days supply	Status
Fasteners	$4.2M	41	healthy
Hydraulics	$6.8M	96	excess
Bearings	$3.1M	22	low - stockout risk
Castings	$5.4M	63	healthy
Electrical	$2.0M	110	obsolete tail

Safety stock: target vs actual

Fastenerson target

Hydraulics+58%

Bearings-31%

Castingson target

Working-capital opportunity

Excess inventory$3.1M

If turns 6.2 → 7.5~$4.6M freed

Stockout-driven expedite$0.7M / yr

Rebalancing hydraulics down and bearings up improves service and frees cash.

Synthetic. Reads inventory + receipts + demand read-only from ERP / WMS; targets computed, not read.

Market demand

Forward demand by segment and region, against market size and share - the signal that should drive stocking and capacity.

+9.4%

Demand growth (proj.)

$1.4B

Served market (est.)

11.7%

Est. market share

14%

Demand variance

Demand forecast synthetic

Units (000s), trailing 8 quarters + 4-quarter projection with confidence band.

ActualProjectionConfidence band

Demand by region

Midwest34%

South27%

West22%

Northeast17%

Demand drivers

Driver	Direction	Strength
Construction starts	tailwind	strong
Industrial PMI	tailwind	moderate
Input cost inflation	headwind	moderate
West-region competitor	headwind	emerging

Calibration. Market size, share, and external drivers shown here would draw on third-party market data via the Analytics layer (roadmap). The forecast is derived from observed order history and carries no provenance hash - treat it as guidance, not a committed number.

Trends

What is growing, what is fading, and the seasonality underneath - across categories and channels.

Category demand: growing vs declining synthetic

Indexed demand, trailing 8 quarters.

Hydraulics (growing)Electrical (declining)

Category trend (YoY)

Category	YoY	Signal
Hydraulics	+19%	accelerating
Bearings	+11%	growing
Fasteners	+3%	flat
Castings	-4%	softening
Electrical	-16%	declining

Seasonality by quarter

Q1index 86

Q2index 104

Q3index 95

Q4index 118

Pre-build Q4 hydraulics inventory to capture the seasonal peak without expedite.

Synthetic. Trend and seasonality computed from observed demand read-only; emerging signals are directional, not verdicts.

Pricing opportunities

Where price is left on the table - realization, leakage, discount discipline, and margin by segment.

92%

Price realization

$1.9M

Price leakage (yr)

14.2%

Avg discount

$2.6M

Recoverable (est.)

List vs realized price by segment read-only

OEM88% real.

Distributor79% real.

Direct / enterprise95% real.

Aftermarket97% real.

Distributor channel realizes only 79% - off-policy discounting drives most of the $1.9M leakage.

Price-increase candidates

Product family	Elasticity	Move	Margin gain
Bearings (low-tail)	low	+4%	$0.9M
Hydraulics (growing)	low	+3%	$0.8M
Fasteners (commodity)	high	hold	-
Castings (custom)	low	+5%	$0.6M

Margin by segment

Aftermarket41%

Direct / enterprise33%

OEM27%

Distributor21%

Opportunities synthetic - computed, not a verdict

$1.1MTighten distributor discount policy - enforce floors on the lowest-realization 20% of lines.

$2.3MSelective price increases on low-elasticity, growing families (bearings, hydraulics, castings).

$0.4MExpedite-fee pass-through on quarter-end rush orders.

Synthetic. Reads order, contract, and cost data read-only; elasticity and margin computed, not read. Pricing is advisory - AssetShop never changes prices in source systems.

Product opportunities

Where demand exists that you do not yet serve - white-space, attach and cross-sell, and the long tail to rationalise.

$3.5M

White-space (est.)

$1.8M

Attach upside (est.)

38%

SKUs = 4% of revenue

2

New SKU candidates

White-space & demand gaps read-only

Opportunity	Evidence	Est. demand
Heavy-duty hydraulic kit	Repeated lost quotes; adjacent family growing 19%	$2.1M
Bearing maintenance bundle	High attach intent; no SKU offered	$1.4M
West-region fast-mover pack	Service gap; competitor presence	$0.9M

Attach & cross-sell

Hydraulics + seals62% attach

Bearings + lubricant34% attach

Castings + fasteners28% attach

Electrical + connectors14% attach

Bearings + lubricant is under-attached vs peers - $1.8M cross-sell upside.

SKU rationalisation (long tail)

Total active SKUs4,820

Long tail (bottom 38%)4% of revenue

Tied-up inventory$1.2M

Rationalising the long tail frees cash and simplifies stocking.

Synthetic. White-space inferred read-only from lost quotes, attach gaps, and demand signals; opportunities are computed, not verdicts.

Integrations & data

What would power demand & market intelligence - the read-only sources, the shared collections, and the honest build status.

Data sources

Read-only; conformance reported honestly (checks passed / total).

Source	System family	Powers	Conformance
SAP S/4HANA	ERP	Orders, demand, pricing, customers	8 / 12
Manhattan WMS	WMS	Inventory, stocking, fulfilment	8 / 12
project44	Visibility / TMS	Distribution, lanes, lead time	9 / 12
Kinaxis	Planning	Demand plan, variance	7 / 12
Pricing engine / CPQ	Pricing	Price realization, leakage	0 / 12 (planned)
Market data feed	External (Analytics)	Market size, share, drivers	0 / 12 (roadmap)

Shared collections (read-only)

shared_purchase_ordersorders

shared_supplierssupply

sco_receipts / sco_mrp_runsstocking

analytics_reports / semantic_layerdemand & market

sales_accounts (customer insights)customers

Posture

Write pathaudit / approval only - OFF

Pricing actionsadvisory only

Residencyper-tenant

LineageSHA-256 anchored

Status. Core demand / stocking / ordering / distribution analytics ride the SCO sources (integrating, not yet certified at scale). Pricing and external market data are planned / roadmap - scaffolds would report 0 / 12 until wired and conformed. AssetShop observes and advises; it never changes prices, orders, or inventory in your systems of record.

Signals & opportunities

Demand and market signals across forecast, inventory, and cost - read-only from planning, actuals, and market feeds. Surfaces patterns; never re-plans or orders. Figures synthetic (Meridian Industrials).

8

Open signals

$9M

Exposure

1

High severity

$5M

Addressable

Detected signals synthetic

Each signal is an observation with a source lineage; confidence reflects how directly the data supports it.

Signal	Area	Severity	Magnitude	Conf.	Source
Forecast bias - Industrial	Forecast	high	+12% over	high	IBP + actuals
Stockout risk - SKU-A family	Service	medium	3 SKUs <2wk	high	inventory
Excess / obsolete risk	Inventory	medium	$3.1M aging	med	inventory + GL
Demand volatility - Automotive	Planning	medium	CV 0.34	med	actuals
Input price-index pressure	Cost	medium	+8% index	high	market feed
Seasonality drift	Forecast	low	2-wk shift	med	actuals
Segment shift - Aerospace up	Mix	low	+5 pts	med	orders

Opportunities the signals point to

What the observation suggests. AssetShop quantifies; your team decides and acts in the source systems.

$3.1M

E&O reduction by re-planning aging SKUs flagged above carrying threshold.

$1.4M

Service recovery on stockout-risk SKUs via buffer reset.

$0.5M

Forecast-bias correction reducing over-build on Industrial lines.

How to read this

High signals are concentrated, well-evidenced, and material - act on these first.

Confidence separates observed facts from modeled estimates.

Every figure traces to a read-only source. Nothing here is written back to any system.

Synthetic. Signals computed from read-only planning / actuals / market data; magnitudes labeled modeled are estimates, not posted figures. Operational signal, not advice; AssetShop never writes back to source systems.

SKU demand detail

Forecast vs actual by SKU with bias and coverage - the item-level data behind planning.

$9.0M

E&O + stockout

+12%

Avg bias

3

Stockout risk

9

SKUs shown

Detail records synthetic

Cover under 2 weeks flags stockout risk; high positive bias flags over-build. Use Export above to download exactly these rows as CSV.

SKU	Segment	Forecast	Actual	Bias	Cover (wks)
SKU-A	Industrial	1200	1140	-5%	1.8
SKU-B	Automotive	640	700	+9%	4.1
SKU-C	Aerospace	260	240	-8%	6.3
SKU-D	Industrial	980	1100	+12%	0.9
SKU-E	Automotive	420	380	-10%	5.2
SKU-F	Industrial	1540	1720	+12%	1.2
SKU-G	Aerospace	180	170	-6%	7.0
SKU-H	Industrial	860	960	+12%	1.6
SKU-I	Automotive	540	500	-7%	3.4

Synthetic (IBP + actuals). Read-only detail; AssetShop never writes back to source systems. Figures illustrate Meridian Industrials.